DD Faves Roll

[WCBias]

Texas -29 at Rice and dropping.

I've looked back over the past three years at how Texas performs against non-conference scrubbs (plus in conference scrubbs Kansas and Baylor), and to be sure...Rice has already lost one game this year by 34 points.. I'd say Texas is a wee bit better than that team (Houston). Anyway, here's the final spread differential:

2003
NMSU - 59

2002
N. Texas - 27
At N. Carolina - 31
Houston - 30
At Tulane - 49
Baylor - 41

2001
NMSU - 34
North Carolina - 30
At Houston - 27
At Baylor - 39
Kansas 59

2000
LA Laf - 42
Houston - 48
Baylor - 34
Kansas - 35

As you can see, only 2 of 15 games were less than 29 points, and one of those (N. Texas) was a bowl game winner (2002).

Next game is home vs. Tulane. ALL OVER TEXAS!!!!

Oklahoma State -24 at SMU

OK, not quite the history that Texas has, but same methodology. SMU lost their first game by 38 points to Texas Tech, a comparable team as OSU.

2003
Wyoming - 24
SW Miss State - 39

Next game for OSU is home vs. LA-LAF. Oklahoma State continues to put itself on the map and rolls.

Purdue -25.5 Vs. Arizona

Reverse methodology here and look at Arizona's record against top 25 calliber teams so far in 2003, and keep in mind these were home games.

LSU - 46
Oregon - 38

This one is a bit tougher than the others, because Purdue has Notre Dame on tap. But Boilermakers good for two or three blow-outs a year under Tiller, and quite frankly, Purdue's 2nd team could beat Arizona by 40.

Minnesota -35 vs. LA LAF

Minn has played two home games and won by an average of 40 points. LA LAF may not be as bad as Tulsa and Troy State, but they aren't much better. Minnesota at home in the dome has huge advantage with incredible offensive weapons and can run this up if they want too. My concern is a trip to Penn State on deck. Small play on Minnesota because, like OK State, I think they have to win big to get national attention.

And last but not least

UCONN -23.5 at Buffalo.

One program is on the rise, the other is...well...Buffalo, the worst division I team in college football. I'm not sure why this line is dropping...but same motivation for UCONN here. UCONN wins big to make a statement, then prays that V. Tech doesn't hurt anyone too badly next week. UCONN has won its two games this year by 24 or more points against better competition, and has won 6 of its last 7 games by an average spread of 32 points.

UCONN ROLLS...might make a big first half play, as UCONN wants to right the ship after misfiring last week vs. BC.

I know Trends aren't a good way to cap, but it is a great way to read between the lines. Good luck all.

 

[NASDAQ]

Being UT alum, I have to disagree with the Texas play. The fact that Rice lost to Houston by 34, and that Texas is only a 29 point fave with the line dropping should raise some concern. Rice can do one thing, and that is run the ball. They are putting up nearly 300 yards a game on the ground, and they will be looking to keep this one as close as they can in front of the home crowd (that will probably be filled with more UT fans than Rice fans, including me).

The Texas run defense is flat out terrible, and so is Rice's, but this just means Texas should finally have the opportunity to establish some sort of running game (I hope), and Rice will keep the ball on the ground and keep the clock running. Rice has outgained their opponents 9 out of the last 10 games.

Asking Texas to cover 4+ TD's is asking a lot in this spot, especially when they are not motivated in any way to blow this team out.

The public loved Texas vs NM St, a game in which they were less than impressive (other than special teams work), loved them against Arkansas (and we all know how that turned out), and for some reason they love Texas again this week at Rice. If the public keeps pounding them like they have been, Vegas is doing it's job perfectly, and ringing in the cash eack week the public falls for these traps.

When a high-profile team comes in to play a lower tier school, have to look to play the lower tier squad or just pass. See Bowling Green, Middle Tennessee St, Georgia Tech, Louisiana Tech, N. Illinois, Memphis, Nevada, San Diego State, Temple, Ball State, Utah, UNLV for a few examples.

I'm gonna pass on this game, but don't see any support for Texas laying this kind of number on the road right now.

 

[WCBias]

NASDAQ....C'mon now, going against your home team? The public can't love Texas too much since the line is dropping. And yes, they don't really have anything to play for this week, except to right the ship.

But you could say the same thing in any of the previous years as shown above. There's not an anomaly...Texas has consistantly whipped up on lesser competition.

I see your point with Rice running the ball and draining the clock. But NMSU tries to do the same thing. I really don't see time of possession being a factor. I bet (I am betting) Texas has at least 2 touchdowns for over 50 yard, and one or more from either special teams or defense. That will just about cover the spread.

Texas will eventually unleashed its offense, Mack Brown is on the hot seat, Cedric Benson and Roy Williams are studs, and Rice has three defenders back from a 4-7 team from last year. They are clearly outmatched, even against a Texas team trying to find itself.

I'm guessing there will just as many Texas fans as Rice fans, true?

I have a great friend who is a UT grad and feels the same way as you this week. And every year when Texas chokes...he gets down on this team. But last week before Arkansas he talked so much trash...

 

[NASDAQ]

The public does love Texas...just because the line move is going the other way does not mean the public is moving it. Vegas knows that people are going to take a ranked Texas team -29/30 over
a Rice team that lost to UH and Duke.

Cedric Benson is far from being a stud, he may be the most overrated player in recent history (sans Simms). He is still riding his HS namesake. He has not impressed me one bit and he is not the future here at UT. Now Selvin Young has skills and he has the potential to be a "stud," but even the best running backs will struggle with weak offensive lines.

You are assuming that if Texas scores two big TD's and one special teams TD that the Rice offense is just going to be stagnant.

"Texas will eventually unleashed its offense, Mack Brown is on the hot seat, Cedric Benson and Roy Williams are studs, and Rice has three defenders back from a 4-7 team from last year."

Texas will NEVER unleash an offense under Brown/Davis, that is absolutely not true. We don't have the guts in the coaching staff to mix it up and turn our offense into something special.

Rice is outmatched, yes, but they get to start with 30 points in this game. There will be more Texas fans than Rice fans at the game for sure.

I was not talking any trash about the team, but I have not been confident about UT covering a game for a good 2-3 years now. They just don't get it done for me.

 

[WCBias]

Nas...

I didn't mean to assert you were talking trash, but I do sense you are down on your team...or at least realistic.

So for both our sakes, lets hope Texas rolls, you as a fan, me as a bettor. And should both Youngs get in the game, I think that would be a good sign for both of us!

 

[NASDAQ]

WC Bias-

Put Vince Young in the game and UT has all my support. Why? Because they are actually taking a risk, which is unheard of under this coaching staff. The only risk they took was putting Chris Simms in front of Applewhite, and God only knows what a huge mistake that was. Mock is great, but Young is better. It's too late for that now, or at least that is the mindset of the staff. Until then, I am not a big fan of this team. They have all these big time athletes who can run and fly, but they are too scared to utilize them the same way Miami or FSU would. If Bowden had the Texas teams of the past 3-5 years, I think at least 2 national championships would have emerged, no doubt. That should say something. Hell if Bobby Stoopes were in control I feel the same way. It's just ridiculous, and I am tired of hearing about recruiting class after recruiting class that turns into a group of chokes.

Mack Brown can recruit, YES, but who the hell can't convince players that UT is the best school to go to in Texas? Last time I checked a John Mackovic was able to bring in a certain guy named Ricky. This team needs to be revamped and I am waiting for the UT community to realize that he is not the coach of the future. If the staff doesn't like to risk it on the field, I will wait for the Athletic Dept to take a chance before I can truly support this team from bottom up.

Sorry but just venting on the Horns a little.

 

[WCBias]

I feel ya,

My hometeam OSU Beavers hired Mike Riley, who has not ever had even one season as a winning head coach in the USA. Everyone up in Corvallis attribute Mike Riley with turning around the program, but MR only benefited from the scholarship reduction. Had MR been the coach of the 2000 team and not Dennis Erickson, there would have never been a Fiesta Bowl. You think Mack plays it conservative...Riley plays it so conservative that he lets opposing teams stay in the game, and often come back to win (See Fresno State this year).


But hey...he's a great recruiter!

 

[christof]

Just a warning about using Texas Tech as a yardstick for the OSU/SMU game:

Yes, Texas Tech and OSU are somewhat comparable, but Texas Tech played SMU at home... in the season opener... in a "new" stadium... at a sellout... with more fans than have ever attended a TT game. Factor in that TT's offense is superior to OSU's, and thats why Tech can beat SMU by 38, but OSU probably can't.

 

[WCBias]

3 for 3, with Minnesota on its way and Texas coming up. Christof, your right, I shouldn't compare Oklahoma State's offense to Texas Tech...its way better.